INDIA’S ENGAGEMENT
WITH CENTRAL ASIA
CHALLENGES AND THE
WAY AHEAD
Indian efforts to establish relations with
the Central Asian States started in right earnest only in the early 2000s. The prime reason for India’s foray into
Central Asia was the country’s increasing energy requirements and the necessity
to identify alternate supply sources, other reasons being Pakistan’s anti-India
agenda in Central Asia and the growing influence of USA and China in this
region. Developments in Central Asia are intrinsically linked to economic and
security interests of India. By virtue of being located in the immediate
neighbourhood of Central Asia, India shares a common concern with Russia and
China against the threat of extremism and terrorism that could emanate from
Central Asia. India, therefore, has a prominent role to play in the region in
coordination with the existing security mechanisms. India’s interests in
Central Asia can be summarised as follows:-
(a) Access
to the Central Asian energy sector would provide alternate sources of energy to
the Indian economy.
(b) Spread
of religious fundamentalism in the region could breed terrorism and extremism,
affecting the stability and security of neighbouring regions, resulting in serious implications for India.
(c) Influence
and foothold in Central Asia would significantly assist Indian initiatives in
Afghanistan and enable India to emerge as a key player in South Asia.
(a)
Central
Asia can play a vital role in India’s relation with Iran. Further, greater
influence in Central Asia would enable India to become an effective
interlocutor between Central Asia and Iran, in matters of mutual cooperation
and benefit.
(b)
Foothold in Central Asia and Afghanistan will
result in what is perceived by many analysts as the strategic encirclement of
Pakistan, India’s perennial foe which can be used by India to her advantage in
bilateral relations.
India’s
Engagement with Central Asia
India’s efforts to build relations with
Central Asia have been based on mutual cooperation and partnership and these
efforts have neither been projected nor perceived to have hegemonic intentions. This Indian approach, which is unlike the
dominating strategy of the USA, Russia and China, has found widespread
acceptance. The pace of Indian
engagement, has undergone a rapid acceleration in recent years and has been
boosted by a number of high level visits between the two sides wherein where in
bilateral agreements in the fields of education, IT, oil and gas sector, light
industry, mineral resources, and pharmaceuticals were signed with Central Asian
republics. For the past several years, the Indian Ministry of External Affairs
has been actively working to establish bilateral ties with all five CAS and
improving political contacts with their leaders through summits and
conferences. India has established Joint Working Groups (JWG) with Uzbekistan,
Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to address challenges arising from instability and
fundamentalism in the region and instituted mechanisms for regular meeting of
these JWGs.
India has also established limited military
relationships with the Central Asian states, mainly involving training
assistance to the region, intelligence sharing and India’s import of of
military hardware from Central Asian states.India was involved in Tajikistan in
the construction of the Ayni airfield in the northwest of Dushanbe, and has
provided infrastructure support to the Military Training College in Dushanbe.
Officers and troops from the Central Asian states have been attending military
courses at at India’s premier military institutions and other establishments and
deployment of Indian army training teams in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan is in the
final stages of realization.
Indian
partnership in Central Asia’s energy sector is spearheaded by the state owned ONGC
which has obtained oil exploration rights in Turkmenistan and also has limited
presence in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Another significant proposal in the
energy sector is the construction of the Turkmenistan Afghanistan Pakistan
India (TAPI) pipeline that would carry Central Asian gas to India over land.
Though the project has evinced interest of all stakeholders, it is yet to take
off because of the volatile situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Indian
energy interests in the region are also related to the hydropower sector in
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan where India has shown inclination to invest, with the
aim of transporting the surplus energy through a power grid extending through Afghanistan
and Pakistan to India.
Foreign Influence in
Central Asia and implications for India
Interests of regional
and extra-regional powers have critically altered the strategic scenario in
Central Asia. Being a relatively new entrant into the Central Asian arena, it
is therefore important to analyse India’s role in the existing complex regional
dynamics.
Faced with growing threat to her global
monopoly from China and decline in her influence in Central Asia, it is likely
that the USA would desire for greater Indian involvement in the region as a
counter to an assertive China. As the US
prepares for the troop withdrawal from Afghanistan in mid 2014, India is looked
upon as an alternative force to fill the strategic vacuum for maintaining peace
in the region. This is also one of the reasons behind the increasing Indo-US
military cooperation that is being witnessed in recent times.
India has always associated her engagement
with Central Asia with the close and traditional friendship with Russia. The
growing Indo-US ties, especially in military matters, have in the recent years
caused strains in the Indo-Russian partnership. Even while India has been
looking up to the Russian Federation to increase her presence in the region,
Russia has remained averse to the growing foreign influence in its backyard,
particularly in the military sector. Failure of Indian efforts in 2010 to
maintain the Ayni airbase in Tajikistan was attributed to the strong Russian
opposition to foreign military presence. However, Russian suspicions about
China’s growing influence in Central Asia have added another perspective to
Indo-Russian relations in Central Asia. Given the nature of India’s non
confrontational approach and troubled relationship with China, it is likely
that Russia would seek to bring India into its fold, to reverse her diminishing
fortunes in the ongoing great game.
China’s growing domination in the region and
her strategic disputes with India are roadblocks to India’s desires in Central
Asia. China has already established deep strategic, economic and technical
partnerships in the region and would not be enthused about a possible Indian
presence across its borders. Chinese CNPC’s overbidding of ONGC to buy stakes
in PetroKazakhstan in 2005 and the more recent procurement of stakes in the
Kashagan oil fields of Kazakhstan in Sep 2013 could be linked to the Chinese
efforts to outmaneuver India. In the face of strong Chinese opposition to
Indian initiatives, it would be difficult for India to effectively engage with
Central Asia, without the support of another strategic partner.
India’s stakes in Afghanistan and
bilateral relations with Iran also play a significant role in shaping India’s
strategy in Central Asia. India has so far offered an estimated $1.3 billion
assistance package to Afghanistan since the beginning of the Afghan war, making
her the largest regional donor. Unlike most other foreign players in
Afghanistan, India enjoys popular support and backing of the Afghan
administration. India has further signed
a formal agreement to assist the Afghan security forces post the ISAF
withdrawal in mid 2014 and launched a $2 billion civil aid effort. Stronger relationships with Central Asian
states bordering Afghanistan would provide India with alternate entry and exit
routes into the land locked country and help to strengthen India’s deep and
strategic partnership with Afghanistan. Afghanistan and Iran are strategically
located to influence the developments in Central Asia and a strong Indian presence in these countries
would better position India to engage with nearby Central Asian states.
Indian Options in
Central Asia
Though
India has a significant role to play in Central Asia, lack of a common border
severely restricts India’s ability to interact with the region. At the same
time, this does not stop unrest and instability in the region to affect the
security scenario in India. In view of the aforementioned, the recommended
Indian approach in Central Asia is as follows:-
(a)
India
should develop already existing partnership programmes into more robust
mechanisms for mutual cooperation, with the aim of projecting the country as a
credible and friendly alternative to the aggressive policies being pursued by
other foreign powers.
(b)
With
the US and western influence in the region on the decline, India should
leverage her widespread acceptance amongst the local populace to negotiate
partnerships with Russia to establish a strong foothold in Central Asia.
(c)
Coordial
relations with Iran are to be utilised as a tool to influence the Central Asian
States. India is to expedite road connectivity projects that would link land
locked Central Asia to Iranian ports, thereby establishing crucial alternate
supply routes.
(d)
India’s presence in Afghanistan is to be
strengthened so as to influence the relations with Central Asia.
(e)
Aggressive posturing by Indian firms is a
must to establish themselves in Central Asia. This is of particular importance
to the Indian energy companies, as the region’s vast energy reserves may well
be the answer to India’s energy quest.
